On the Folly of Sports Betting

Disclaimer:  I do not bet on sports events of any kind, nor would I encourage anyone to do so.  This post simply gives my observations.

Last night, in college football, Ohio State traveled to Northwestern and, after trailing for much of the game, came from behind to win, 40-30.  But it was the way the game ended that drew my attention.  Ohio State had scored a go-ahead touchdown with 5:22 remaining in the fourth quarter to take a 34-30 lead.  On Northwestern's ensuing possession, they turned it over on downs.  Ohio State killed most of the remaining time on the clock before facing fourth down and punting.  Northwestern had 21 seconds remaining and eighty-four yards to travel.

Northwestern was then sacked for a nine-yard loss on first down, moving them back to the seven yard line.  After stopping the clock with just a few seconds left, a short pass was thrown, followed by some slopping lateraling, a fumble, and a group of OSU players falling on the ball in the end zone for a touchdown.  (No PAT was attempted, since time had expired.)

Being a math-oriented, statistics-enjoying kind of person, I looked up the betting line for the game.  Ohio State was, depending on the bookies chosen, about a 6.5-to-7-point favorite.  By scoring the goofy last-play touchdown, all of those who took OSU to cover the spread were suddenly very, very happy.  Those who took the opposite play were probably either horrified or dejected. 

What struck me as interesting was that at no time during the game, except at the end of the final play, was Ohio State ever ahead by more than four points.  And for that matter, Ohio State never came close to taking a bigger lead than four points, particularly in the fourth quarter.

I do not mean to imply any betting-related shenanigans here regarding the conduct of the game.  My point is this:  Betting is taking a risk that could easily—and unexpectedly—cost you money.  To gamble one's money on sports is to be a poor steward of it.  Even what appears to be a "sure thing" can suddenly turn out to be a deep and unsettling loss.  Steer clear of the temptations to wager.

In related news, that touchdown cost Nevada sports books $3-4 million.

How Bad is the Big Ten?

No one, except the deluded and the dishonest, is claiming right now that Big Ten Football is the greatest in the land, for the simple reason that the evidence speaks otherwise.

Each of the eleven conference teams has played two games; a total of four losses have been recorded. Three of those were in home games. Ohio State played respectably against a very good USC team, but the other losses are a bit embarassing.

So are these facts: The "directional Michigan" teams (Western, Central, Eastern) went 1-2 against the Big Ten last week and were collectively outscored by only 5 points. And Western should have beaten Indiana. Wisconsin needed two overtimes to beat Fresno State at home. Iowa had to block two last-moment field goals at home to win its first game against Northern Iowa.

Here's a breakdown of the conference so far.

At the top: Penn State. Two solid games, won by wide margins. Against powderpuff teams? Well, yes. But unlike some of the conference brethren, they made their opponents look like powderpuff teams.

Near the top: Michigan. Notre Dame blew their chance to win at Michigan. Nevertheless, Michigan is 2-0 and is crawling into the ratings again.

Not as close to the top as they should be: Ohio State and Wisconsin. Ohio State nearly chokes up a big fourth-quarter lead to Navy, and then can't keep an opponent from driving the length of the field at the end of a game. Wisconsin has barely beaten two powderpuffs.

2-0 for only a limited time: Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa.

If this keeps up, more embarrassments to come: Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State. I know MSU, in particular, has developed gut-wrenching losses into an art form. It appears they might be taking it to the next level.

Schools other than OSU should take note: It does not impress the rest of the college football universe when you do not schedule teams against worthy opponents. If Big Ten football is to show itself the greatest in the land, they have to play the rest of the land!